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Party is growing, and recent polls suggest she could be the party’s strongest candidate in the general election against President Biden. However, she is currently on a collision course with Ron DeSantis in a competition that will heat up leading to the Iowa caucuses in January.
The Republican nomination contest is becoming less mysterious. Former President Donald Trump is leading by a wide margin and is likely to secure the nomination. The remaining question is whether anyone can emerge as his main challenger and if that would change the dynamics of the race.
Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, and Ron DeSantis, the second-term governor of Florida, are the only two candidates with a realistic chance of becoming Trump’s main opponent. Both have executive experience and represent a generational shift for the party, but they have different styles.
DeSantis presents himself as a more competent version of Trump, sharing many of his positions but claiming he can accomplish what Trump could not. Haley initially struggled with how much distance to keep from Trump but now confidently predicts his defeat in the general election. She presents herself as real change and the future face of the Republican Party, potentially appealing to a broader audience than DeSantis.
While both Haley and DeSantis are conservatives, they differ on important issues, as highlighted in a recent debate in Miami. One key difference is their stance on continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Haley strongly supports it, while DeSantis avoided giving a direct answer and instead referred to securing the U.S.-Mexico border and addressing China's threat in the Indo-Pacific region.
On the topic of abortion, Haley strongly opposes the procedure but believes her party should approach the issue more inclusively. She also criticized Republicans for misleading the public with talk of a national abortion ban, noting that there aren't enough votes in the Senate to pass such a policy. DeSantis, who signed a bill banning most abortions after six weeks in Florida, did not emphasize this fact during the debate. Instead, he focused on the importance of allowing states to make their own decisions and criticized anti-abortion groups for not effectively responding to state referendums that have enshrined abortion rights in state constitutions.
Regarding Social Security, Haley expressed openness to raising the retirement age for younger workers and limiting benefits for wealthy Americans. DeSantis discussed bringing down overall inflation and reducing government spending as ways to address the future of the entitlement program but did not explicitly state whether he would support raising the retirement age.
During the debate, DeSantis came across as a disciplined and on-message politician, often relying on memorized snippets from his stump speech to answer questions. Some may view him as robotic and overly scripted. Haley is also scripted but demonstrates more agility and natural communication skills, which work to her advantage. Her performances in the three Republican debates have raised her profile and increased her standing among voters. The fact that she was the target of more attacks than any other candidate in the recent debate indicates that she is seen as having momentum.
Haley is known for her sharp tongue and combative nature when faced with attacks. In the recent debate, she responded to tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy by calling him "scum" after he mentioned her daughter in a discussion about TikTok. This wasn't the first time she put down Ramaswamy; at a previous debate, she told him, "Every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say."
Her interactions with Ramaswamy, however, revealed the limited usefulness of these debates in helping Republican voters choose between Haley and DeSantis. Ramaswamy has made little progress in gaining support and is now seen less favorably than when he started. He has become a distraction at a time when it is becoming more urgent for Republicans to find the strongest challenger to Trump.
A substantive debate between DeSantis and Haley could provide insights into their strengths and weaknesses that have not been revealed in the multicandidate debates. However, it is unlikely that such a debate will happen, although it is too early to determine if any of the five candidates on stage this week will fail to qualify for the December 6 debate in Alabama.
The competition between Haley and DeSantis will primarily take place through campaign appearances and television advertising in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If one of them does not surpass the other before the Super Tuesday contests in March, Republicans could face a repeat of 2016 when Trump competed against a large field of candidates. This scenario would be advantageous for the former president, as he benefits from divided opposition.
Recent polls for the general election have shown Trump leading Biden nationally and in some crucial battleground states. These same polls have indicated that Haley is an even stronger candidate against the current president.
Combined results from six swing states in surveys conducted by the New York Times and Siena College showed Trump leading Biden by four percentage points, but Haley was ahead of Biden by eight points. DeSantis led Biden by one point. In individual battleground states, the Times-Siena surveys showed that Haley's lead over Biden was larger than Trump's in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Haley's path to becoming the main alternative to Trump is slightly better than DeSantis's, but she must perform well in Iowa to achieve this. The most recent Iowa Poll showed both candidates at 16 percent, compared to Trump's 43 percent. However, Haley's support is rising while DeSantis's is declining.
Their different trajectories suggest that Haley has momentum while DeSantis's campaign is struggling in Iowa. However, the caucuses are still two months away, scheduled for January 15, and the Florida governor has other advantages in Iowa.
One advantage is that, among all Republican candidates, DeSantis is viewed more favorably than any other, including Trump. Additionally, more Iowans consider him as their second choice compared to Haley.
DeSantis received a potentially significant boost last week when he was endorsed by popular Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R), who has clashed with Trump. The endorsement surprised many Iowa political activists. The timing of the endorsement could not have been better for DeSantis.
DeSantis also has a more substantial campaign infrastructure thanks to his well-funded super PAC Never Back Down. He plans to campaign in all 99 counties. On the other hand, Haley is running a leaner campaign with a more targeted approach. If she continues on this path, she can expect a barrage of negative advertisements.
In New Hampshire, Haley is in second place in the polls, ahead of DeSantis. However, there are other obstacles in her way. One obstacle is the presence of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has focused his campaign on New Hampshire and positioned himself as the strongest critic of Trump.
If Haley enters the New Hampshire primary with momentum from Iowa, Christie's hold on anti-Trump voters in the Granite State would complicate her efforts to break away from the rest of the field. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R) is considering an endorsement and is focused on either Haley or DeSantis.
To isolate Trump in a one-on-one contest, Haley will need a strong second-place finish in New Hampshire and the rapid collapse of the rest of the field as the campaign moves to her home state of South Carolina. She may appear well-positioned to claim this status after the early states vote, but the road ahead will be challenging.
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